2024 US Presidential election

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election concluded with Donald Trump defeating Kamala Harris. While some may be surprised by Trump’s win, a behavioural science analysis reveals key psychological principles that likely influenced voter behaviour.
Disclaimer: We have no political affiliations with any party. This is just an analysis based on the current events.

RECENCY AND FAMILIARITY BIAS

Trump's continuous presence in media and politics, whether through rallies, social media, or news coverage, capitalizes on recency bias. Repeated exposure can breed familiarity and reduce apprehension, making even divisive figures seem more palatable over time. His strategy contrasts with more traditional approaches, such as Joe Biden’s lower public profile, which some perceive as passive or uninspiring. By maintaining high visibility, Trump leverages both familiarity and the salience of recent events, making his message harder to ignore.

FRAMING EFFECT

Trump’s campaign effectively highlighted high-salience issues like inflation and border security, connecting with voters who felt immediate impacts on their daily lives. By framing these concerns as top priorities, he tapped into rising anxiety around cost of living and security, resonating with many Americans. Harris, by contrast, addressed a broader array of issues without the same focus, which may have diluted her appeal. This emphasis on urgent, relevant issues shows how political messaging succeeds when it aligns with voters’ immediate concerns.

VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF KEY SWING STATES

In the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia ultimately swung toward Donald Trump, enabling his victory over Kamala Harris. This reflects notable behavioural trends in voter turnout, issue prioritization, and demographic shifts. Let’s look at these specific cases.

PENNSYLVANIA

Historically competitive, Pennsylvania sees contrasting urban-rural divides, with urban areas leaning Democratic and rural areas strongly Republican. Social Identity Theory is key here, as many voters align with the "in-group" values of rural, working-class communities. His messaging on patriotism, economic independence, and border security resonated with his supporters, strengthening loyalty among those who felt his priorities mirrored their own. Trump capitalized on this by framing his campaign as defending these communities against "elite" interests, reinforcing group cohesion and loyalty. The Amish votes proved crucial here.

GEORGIA

Known for its evolving demographics, Georgia has become highly competitive. With the growing influence of urban, diverse populations around Atlanta, Georgia has been trending more Democratic. However, Trump’s 2024 campaign managed to regain ground. reactance theory explains much of this shift. Reactance occurs when people feel that their freedoms or identities are threatened, leading to a stronger commitment to beliefs perceived as "under siege." Trump’s messaging around preserving traditional American values, countering progressive social changes, and addressing economic challenges stirred defensive reactions, particularly among rural voters. This, coupled with a fear of perceived cultural displacement, amplified rural and suburban turnout, outweighing the growing Democratic base around urban areas.

MICHIGAN

Behavioural factors like issue salience and source credibility significantly shaped voting behaviour in Michigan. Inflation and border security concerns were more dominant to voters here while abortion, a more marginal issue, had less sway. Particularly influential was the dissatisfaction among Arab American voters in Dearborn, who felt Biden—and by extension Harris—failed in handling the Middle East conflict. Social trust played a key role: Harris’s inability to stand out from Biden’s policies alienated these voters, who turned to Trump. Jill Stein’s Green Party candidacy drew further support away from Harris, weakening her base. Here, Biden was the unfortunate anchor on Harris’s campaign, reducing her appeal as an independent leader. This loss of trust and the shift toward Trump among Arab Americans demonstrate how closely voter behaviour can link to perceived competency and alignment with a candidate’s "in-group" values.

CONCLUSION

The election is a behavioural science case study to understand voters’ choices. Trump’s success demonstrates how behavioural factors like familiarity, framing, and in-group loyalty shaped preferences, particularly around high-stakes issues like inflation, security, and cultural identity. Harris’s failure to extract her campaign from Biden’s administration and policies affected her credibility with specific demographics. Ultimately, these dynamics underscore the power of tailored messaging and perceived alignment with voter values, showing how effectively addressing psychological biases can decisively influence electoral outcomes.

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